It cost $0.32 to mail a letter, unemployment was 4.9%, O.J. Simpson was found liable in a civil suit, Hong Kong was returned to Chinese rule, Timothy McVeigh was sentenced to Death, Green Bay defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl, Titanic came crashing into movie theatres, and Dolly, the first genetically engineered lamb was unveiled to the public; the year was 1997.

We’ve felt a reticence to begin writing market commentary for the third quarter with the partial government shut-down now in its fourth day.  The sentiment revolves around a general premonition that “everything could change” on a dime with a political resolution (or a deepening) of already entrenched positions in Washington, thus rendering our commentary moot. 

Last year we were looking for US economic growth in the 2%-3% range, an improved investing environment here in the US as well as a stabilizing of non-US and particularly developing markets. 

In June we quoted Alexis de Toqueville with regard to the developed world’s attempt to come to grips with fiscal burdens of increasingly hefty magnitudes.

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design”–Friedrich A. Hayek

We commented in January that “we expect the continued, gradual growth rate of the US (2%-3%) to support an ultimately improved investment climate domestically—but we are convinced we will remain in a low-return environment…” 

By now most of us have read our fill of 2011 post-mortems—but we’re compelled to add a few thoughts of our own before we look ahead, seeking to apply the experience and perspectives gained to our outlook on global markets in 2012.

This past quarter we’ve witnessed Europe’s fiscal issues finally metastasize into banking issues (Belgium’s Dexia)—long feared—as their politicians, like our own, have made an art form of “kicking the can down the road”.

We have made general market commentaries in many recent portfolio reviews on the seemingly déjà vu aspects to this Spring and Summer’s market movements, and accompanying economic and fiscal “narrative” as compared to those of a year ago.

A client of ours called about 5 or 6 weeks ago in a bit of a panic.  In fairness, it wasn’t just this client—there were several—but for some reason this particular conversation comes to mind.  In short, the client’s question seemed to be when (not if) to get out of the market.

CCR Wealth Management greets the New Year with more sanguine market and economic reflections for our clients’ consideration—at last!

As we approach the end of another calendar year, we reflect not just on the events and developments of 2010, but on the decade that this month concludes.  We think it’s an opportune moment to deliberately step back from the trees, and to view the forest.  Doing so, in some ways, offers a mental respite…

The market volatility we have all experienced in the last two weeks, and especially the last few days has all investors understandably on-edge. 

As we write, stocks are off some 12.5% from their April 26 highs (as measured by the S&P 500). 

“A cynic is not merely one who reads bitter lessons from the past,

            he is one who is prematurely disappointed in the future.”

                                                                                                -Sidney J. Harris